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OC Housing Report 3.12.18


There is a lot of talk and speculation about the housing market these days. Some people are convinced that housing is a bubble and it will implode, dropping more than it did during the Great Recession. Scary talk. Interest rates have reached 4.5%, it must mean the end of the housing run is near. On a live video, one real estate professional warned that the market will turn this autumn stating that a downturn occurs every 10-years. Some speculated that the new tax law would affect the luxury market negatively. From recent volatility in the stock market to the looming trade wars, there is a lot of uncertainty out there and it has been spilling over to housing. Is a housing downturn around the corner? Will the market finally favor buyers? Based on the facts, we do not see a downturn anytime soon.

• Active listing inventory increased by 242 homes in the past two weeks, up 5%, and now totals 4,420. Expect the inventory to increase from now through mid-Summer. Last year, there were 4,571 homes on the market, 151 more than today.
• There are 24% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is the same as last year. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased in the past two-weeks by 24 pending sells, down 1%. The average pending price is $900,305.
• The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.8 million over the past two weeks. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 33 days. This range represents 35% of the active inventory and 58% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 43 days, a hot seller’s market (fewer than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 82 days, a slight seller’s market (between 60 and 90 days).
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time dropped from 79 days to 78. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 115 to 149 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 167 days to 193 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 515 to 338 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 38% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
• The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased from 51 days to 55 in the past two weeks, a hot seller’s market (fewer than 60 days). From here, we can expect the market time to remain below 60-days through May.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1% of all listings and 1.4% of demand. There are only 14 foreclosures and 30 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 44 total distressed homes on the active market, rising by four in the past two weeks. Last year there were 77 total distressed sales, 77% more than today.
• There were 1,820 closed residential resales in February, down by 4% from February 2017’s 1,888 closed sales. February marked a 1% increase from January 2018. The sales to list price ratio was 97.6% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.9% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.7%. That means that 98.4% of all transactions were equity sales.

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