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OC Housing Report 2.15.18

With demand exploding onto the scene, it is officially the best season to sell a home.

Warning to Buyers: regardless of rising interest rates and the volatility of Wall Street, the market is not going to change anytime soon and tilt in the buyer’s favor. The trends are lined up in favor of sellers with tremendous demand and a very low supply of homes to purchase.

Warning to Sellers: pricing very close to the most recent comparable pending and closed sales is fundamental in order to find success. The active inventory has already started to increase despite high demand. This is due primarily to the fact that many sellers cannot help themselves. They ignore the comparable data and reach for the moon, overpricing their homes and sitting on the market without success.

• The active listing inventory increased by 207 homes in the past two weeks, up 5%, and now totals 3,981. Expect the inventory to increase from now through mid-Summer. Last year, there were 4,448 homes on the market, 467 more than today.
• There are 29% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 20%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, skyrocketed in the past two weeks by adding an additional 522 pending sales, up 30%. The average pending price is $909,074.
• The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.8 million over the past two weeks. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is highly competitive with an expected market time of just 33 days. This range represents 36% of the active inventory and 57% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 43 days, considered a seller’s market (fewer than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 21% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 54 days, still in the seller’s favor.
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time dropped from 112 days to 81. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 145 to 122 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 221 days to 163 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time fell from 355 to 349 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 39% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
• The expected market time for all homes in Orange County dropped from 64 days to 52 in the past two weeks, a seller’s market (fewer than 60 days). From here, we can expect the market time to drop a little bit more by the end of the month.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1% of all listings and 2.3% of demand. There are only 16 foreclosures and 23 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 39 total distressed homes on the active market, dropping by 8 in the past two weeks and reaching its lowest level since the very beginning of the Great Recession. Last year there were 103 total distressed sales, 164% more than today.
• There were 1,799 closed residential resales in January, down by 9% from January 2017’s 1,904 closed sales. January marked a 21% drop from December 2017. The sales to list price ratio was 97.6% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 1.1% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.8%. That means that 98.1% of all sales were standard sellers with equity.

Please call or contact Csira Properties for any real estate related questions.

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